Taking Risks

People would say “a quarter of a million dollars”  with raised eyebrows...

We love to talk about “making good decisions,” especially in real estate. But what we don’t talk about enough is when a good decision actually happens.

Because truthfully, a good decision isn’t the moment you look smart at the closing table or years later when your property value doubles. It’s made before any of that—when the outcome is still murky, the market is uncertain, when you're facing a risk, and nothing is set in stone.

I think about the clients I helped buy during the last recession.

One purchased a condo by the lake—modern, clean, and priced at a quarter of a million dollars. At the time, that sounded like a lot. People would say “a quarter of a million dollars” with raised eyebrows. It wasn’t “cheap,” it was risky. The market felt shaky, and even though prices had already dropped, there was this collective fear: What if they fall more?

But today?

That same condo had first tripled, then declined to double in value—and it’s been cash-flowing as a rental the entire time.

Or look at homes in neighborhoods like Crestmont, Montclair, or Ridgemont. Years ago, you could get in for $550K to $600K. Now those same homes are worth closer to $1.6 million. At the time, no one thought prices would climb that high. It felt ludicrous. But the market was still malleable—shifting, changing, open to momentum.

That’s the real difference.

Good decisions are made when things are still flexible—before the outcome is clear.

On the flip side, the only time I’ve truly seen someone make a bad real estate decision in real estate is when they act as though the outcome is still changeable when it’s not.

Like a seller in financial distress holding on, hoping for a miracle offer. Or a homeowner trying to negotiate with the bank for too long with extreme resistance to building a plan B and moving forward. Hope is a beautiful thing—it’s a virtue. But hope is not a strategy. And it’s not the same as decision-making.

Yes, understanding the market matters.

Yes, timing matters.

But waiting beyond what can be forecasted, holding out for a moment that’s already passed—that’s when decisions slip out of our hands.

The takeaway?

If you’re in a position to make a move when things are still malleable—even if they feel uncertain—you’re in the best possible position. That’s where true opportunity lives.

And if you’re not sure where we are in the cycle right now? That’s where working with the right agent (someone like me) matters.

Moya Robinson REALTOR®️| COMPASS 510-575-0629 moya.robinson@compass.com | DRE#01776635